2021 FANTASY’S PHINEST ROOKIE REVIEW
Last offseason, I wrote a 2 part article profiling 25 Rookies that I thought had a chance to make a significant impact for their NFL teams and your fantasy teams. Whether it was the 1st overall selections, mid-round steals or potential late round sleepers every rookie seemed primed to make big splashes for their respective teams in some way…. or so I thought. While big name college players jumped right out the gate and were instant superstars, some flailed and failed to find their footing to start their NFL careers. So, for this article I will revisit the past in the order that I listed each player, how they performed and what their fantasy value is going forward into 2022 and beyond, for better or for worse.
25. Ian Book, QB New Orleans Saints k– Book made one appearance in 2021, a Monday Night Matchup with a white-hot Miami Dolphins football team in Week 16. It was a disaster from the start as he was intercepted twice, including his very first pass being returned for a touchdown and was sacked 8 times, making his first career start one to remember for all the wrong reasons. Book will have little to no value in 2022, as Jameis Winston is expected to return and compete with Taysom Hill for the starting role along with a potential drafting of another Quarterback.
24. Larry Rountree III, Los Angeles Chargers – I thought Rountree had a chance to make an immediate impact last season, due to my concerns about the health of Justin Jackson, the mistakes of Joshua Kelley and the durability of Austin Ekeler. Ekeler proved himself to be a true workhorse as both a receiver and runner, scoring 20 times. The only game he missed wasn’t because of a physical injury but rather due to COVID-19 protocols, so he more than proved his durability as an RB1 and should be treated as such going into 2022. Rountree however will be a mere insurance backup should Jackson or Kelley not be retained, although the team has said they would like to keep Jackson going forward.
23. Demetric Felton, WR/RB Cleveland Browns – Coming into the season I was intrigued by Felton due to his ability to make an impact as a rusher, receiver, and a returner. His contributions mostly came as a receiver, recording 18 catches for 181 yards and a pair of scores. Ball security was his biggest issue, fumbling 4 times (amazingly, none were recovered by the defense.) Nevertheless, Felton’s role could very well increase in 2022 because the skill positions in Cleveland appears to be in a state of flux. Jarvis Landry is the only established player on the team after Odell Beckhams’ in-season trade to the Rams but behind him are several question marks: Is DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones) a legit, consistent starter? What about Rashard Higgins? Who’s going to be the featured Tight End? Keep in mind that this is still a run-based attack led by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt but due to the number of unproven players at receiver, the Browns could increase Felton’s workload next year. He’s worth a selection in the last few rounds of deeper leagues.
22. Amari Rodgers, WR Green Bay Packers – I thought that Rodgers could have worked his way into a prominent spot as the #2 receiver alongside Davante Adams, but Allen Lazard would have none of it. With a line of 40-508-8, Lazard became Aaron Rodger’s secondary target and a red zone safety valve due to his big frame. The Packers also became a more run-centric offense as well, possibly discovering a new bell-cow in Bowling Ball back AJ Dillon. (More on him in a later article during the off-season.) Rodgers only had 4 receptions to his name in 2021 and had no value. That said, the Packers offense could look drastically different in 2022 following a shocking home playoff loss to the 49ers; Aaron Rodgers has publicly stated he does not want to be part of a rebuild and there are a number of contractual mountains that need to be climbed, one of which is that of the Packers star receiver in Adams. Keep an eye on the Packers throughout the offseason and depending on how things play out, Amari is a name that could generate some mild buzz.
21. Michael Carter, RB New York Jets – Carter had a fair season as a rookie for the Jets, finishing with 639 yards and four touchdowns. He added 36 receptions for 325 yards, which is promising for his PPR value in the future. He missed some time with an ankle injury, but he was serviceable in the games he did play. He’s one of several building blocks for Gang Green and head coach Robert Saleh as the Jets look to rise out a seemingly eternal fantasy slumber. He will enter 2022 as a weekly flex play with solid upside as the youthful Jets continue to grow.
20. Elijah Moore, WR New York Jets – Staying in the Big Apple, Carter’s rookie teammate showed tremendous promise as a potential go-to target for the Jets, the first such one since the team had Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall several years ago. Starting with a Week 7 loss to the Patriots on October 24, Moore had at least 6 targets in every game since until he was placed on IR in Week 14 with a quad injury. He had several monster games in November, scoring twice against the Colts on a Thursday Night and truly breaking out two weeks later against the Dolphins with an 8-141-1 line. All in all, he scored 5 touchdowns in as many weeks, chipping an additional touchdown on the ground, and giving Jets fans a reason to hope. Moore will enter 2022 as a mid-level WR3 with a lot of hype and if he can stay healthy, he could easily vault into high end WR2 territory.
19. Tylan Wallace, WR Baltimore Ravens – Nothing to see here for this entry. Wallace made no impact for the Ravens’, and it looks like more of the same with Mark Andrews, Sammy Watkins, Rashod Bateman, and Hollywood Brown all ahead of him in the receiving pecking order. Oh, and Hollywood’s cousin has stated that he would like to join in on the fun too.
18. Mac Jones, QB New England Patriots – It will take a good, long and championship winning career for the Mac Attack to distance Patriots fans hearts away from the GOAT, but he got off to a somewhat decent start last year. Jones threw for 3800 yards with 22 Touchdowns and probably could have hit 4000 had Josh McDaniels allowed him to throw at least a couple of passes during a windy Monday Night in Buffalo. The Patriots kept the gameplan relatively mild for him on most weeks but when they opened things up, they showed trust in their young signal caller, and he often responded. That said, Jones barely only threw for 300 yards twice this year (307 vs. the Jets and 310 vs. the Titans) and that was due to the Patriots Receiver corp. made up of players who are better suited to be slot guys and second and third reads than bona fide go-to targets. Jones still needs time before making a case to be a QB1 but going into 2022 he is a solid guy to have on your bench who can be a good bye week filler.
17. Kadarius Toney, WR New York Giants – I did not have high expectations for Toney’s rookie season with the Giants. Outside of a 10 catch, 189-yard performance in Week 5 against the Cowboys, Toney did not have the instant impact that most Giant fans would have liked. The silver lining? The other receivers on the team were equally as bad or worse. Kenny Golladay might have been the worst free agent signing we have seen in a long time, Sterling Shepard underwhelmed and ended the season on IR, Darius Slayton was inconsistent way too much and John Ross just can’t live up to whatever hype he had years ago. The teams’ best option was Evan Engram who recorded 46 receptions for 408 yards and 3 TDs. The starter, Daniel Jones threw 10 Touchdowns all season. This Giants offense was historically bad in 2021 and the hope is that they can only go up. Toney will have all off-season to show he can be a top playmaker for Big Blue next year, but with the dismissal of Joe Judge and more changes bound to come starting at the top, he will have to prove it to them and fantasy owners everywhere before being considered worthy of a roster spot on your team.
16. Rashod Bateman, WR Baltimore Ravens – Bateman had big expectations coming into the season. He was seen as a possession type, chain-mover that could be a dependable option for Lamar Jackson on the perimeter. However, he missed a good chunk of the beginning of the season with a groin injury and didn’t make his debut until Week 6. It took time for him to get his feet under him, but he had a pair of 80 yard performances in his first 4 games and showed what he can do with a (7-103) game against the Browns. He ended the season with 46 catches for 515 yards and a score; modest numbers but I believe he can be a reliable, solid receiver that can grow with Lamar Jackson. Treat Bateman as a WR4 worth a late rounder in deeper leagues going into 2022.
15. Zach Wilson, QB New York Jets – Zach Wilson had more downs than ups, as expected, during his rookie year. He traded in his Brigham Young Jersey for the Gotham Green of New York and joined one of the more underrated divisions in football. He struggled when he was healthy (he missed 4 games with a knee injury) and displayed an alarming tendency to be drawn to defensive players, being sacked at least 4 times in 6 of the 13 games he played in and throwing for multiple scores just three times. He is an underrated runner, showing off his wheels during a highlight worthy run against Jacksonville in Week 15 and scoring 4 times on the ground on the season. Wilson is off the radar as a starter going forward and should be only used a desperation flex in 2-QB leagues until further notice.
14. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Detroit Lions – Despite being drafted in the 4th round, I believed that St. Brown was a steal for the Lions. I even dedicated a separate article to his value as a super-sleeper, suggesting that he could quickly rise atop the depth chart and be used as a Robert Woods-type player for Jared Goff. Well, 90 catches, 912 yards and 6 total touchdowns later, I think the Lions are happy with the early returns of their young draft pick and savvy fantasy owners who drafted him or even picked him up in season are as well. St. Brown teased owners with his steady catch production over the weeks before turning it up in fantasy playoff time; All 5 of his receiving touchdowns came when the calendar turned to December and he never had less than 8 catches during that run, including a game winner against the Vikings that gave the Lions their first win. St. Brown figures to be a key piece in the Lions rebuild and will enter 2022 as an excellent, high upside WR3 with added PPR value who is worth a pick as early as round 7.
13. Trey Sermon, RB San Francisco 49ers – Sermons’ name was also a popular sleeper pick and many, including yours truly thought that he would be the 49ers bell cow, with good reason – He had the ideal look of a lead back at 6 feet 1, 220 pounds; He was a superstar at Ohio State; and he was joining perhaps the most run-heavy team in the NFL. A Week 1 injury to incumbent Raheem Mostert only fueled the Sermon-hype train. Instead, it was fellow rookie and 6th round draft pick Elijah Mitchell who stole the show in that same game where Mostert was injured. Mitchell ran for 104 yards with a touchdown and never looked back, winning the job for the rest of the regular season. Sermon, meanwhile, never took off like most thought. Even when Mitchell missed some time with injuries, it was reliable veteran Jeff Wilson who stepped in Mitchell’s stead and led the ground attack. The 49ers will continue to run the ball at will and Mitchell is the guy who will benefit most and will be gone by the 3rd round of most drafts. (And judging by how he has been used, Deebo Samuel will get plenty of carries too.) Sermon is the victim of this shift and isn’t worth drafting.
12. Rondale Moore, WR Arizona Cardinals – Moore struggled with inconsistency throughout his rookie season. After coming out on fire in the first two weeks of the season with 11 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown, he struggled to rise atop the depth chart. He never had more than 59 yards again during the season; even an 11-catch game on November 21 against the Seahawks netted only 51 yards. Furthermore, his Week 2 score against the Vikings would be his lone score of the season. Even as DeAndre Hopkins was lost for the season in Week 14, Moore did not develop into a reliable target for Kyler Murray. Not surprisingly, the Cardinals struggled for the rest of the season and were soundly defeated by the Rams in the playoffs. I do expect Moore to rebound and grow into a more prominent role in Year 2 as the team will groom him to be the secondary target alongside D-Hop. His 54 receptions speak to potential PPR value as well, so he can be viewed as WR4 in deeper leagues.
11. Justin Fields, QB Chicago Bears – Fields, like most of his rookie counterparts before and after this slot, struggled when on the field in 2021. He did not start immediately, sitting behind Andy Dalton until Week 3, where he was pounded by Myles Garrett and company for 9 sacks in a 26-6 loss to the Browns. (They were probably the D/ST stream of that week.) He also struggled with health, missing time with rib and ankle injuries and then missing the season finale with a COVID-19 stint. He does get a clean slate this year as Matt Nagy was fired and the team hired Colts Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus to lead them in 2022. The team will most likely continue to run the offense through David Montgomery and relegate Fields to the role of a game manager in the early goings and with the lack of established weapons outside of him, Fields won’t even be an attractive backup to have on your team.
10. Javonte Williams, RB Denver Broncos – Williams held his own as a rookie in 2021 and just as I expected, he took over the lead back role from Melvin Gordon as the year progressed. While he didn’t exactly blow the doors off the league, he demonstrated nice sample sizes of how good he can be. With 903 rushing yards, 43 receptions, and 7 Total scores, Williams will be a popular breakout candidate, especially if when the Broncos upgrade their quarterback situation. Seriously, this team is an above average QB away from being major players in the AFC West and maybe even the AFC overall. The hiring of Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett will only fuel the rumors of his Hall of Fame Quarterback following him from Green Bay and if that happens, even with all the young talent Denver has, Williams could be the biggest beneficiary and will see his value skyrocket from very strong RB2 to surefire RB1 that will have a 3rd round draft price.
9. Kyle Pitts, TE Atlanta Falcons – Pitts came into the season obviously as the best rookie Tight End in the draft, but some circles thought he might be the best player. For the Falcons, he was as advertised in his rookie year. 68 receptions, 1026 yards, and a pro bowl nod showed what he is capable of and what kind of career he will have. The only complaint anyone can have against him is his one score, but those will come. Pitts was a low-end TE1 all season and will only get better in 2022. His Quarterback, Matt Ryan has been in decline over the last few years but will still be good enough to get the ball to his best playmaker. Fantasy favorites Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and George Kittle are still around and will be for some time, but do not be surprised one bit if the uber-athletic Pitts quickly joins their table and maybe even challenges them for the spot of Tight End Supreme sometime next year.
8. Jaylen Waddle, WR Miami Dolphins – Waddle stepped in from Game 1 and showed everyone who the Dolphins lead receiver is. Tua Tagovailoa looked his way as much as possible in 2021 and he responded by breaking Anquan Boldin’s record for receptions by a rookie set back in 2003 with 104, to go with his 1015 yards and 6 Touchdowns. Tua and Waddle clearly picked up from where they left off during their Alabama days and could form a not-for-long underrated tandem in South Beach. As far as his fantasy value goes, I’m going to give him a high-end WR2 grade in standard leagues, but in PPR he is a low-end WR1 sleeping giant who will routinely awaken to 100+ catches throughout his career.
7. Terrace Marshall, WR Carolina Panthers – The Panthers likely had big plans for Marshall after drafting him in the second round to pair with #1 wideout DJ Moore. However, Marshall never got going and battled injuries, ineffectiveness and was even benched as a healthy scratch for several games as well. I will give him a pass as the Quarterback situation flamed out and the team looks ready to bail on the Sam Darnold experiment and Cam Newton revival tour. Also, despite what we have seen over the last few years, there are rookie receivers that still need time to adjust to being a pro and facing NFL level cornerbacks. Marshall still is a young player and should be much better than his (17-138) line and will have every opportunity to make a serious run at the #2 job come training camp.
6. Trey Lance, QB San Francisco 49ers – Conventional thinking would lead one to believe that the 49ers had drafted Lance 3rd overall to be their Quarterback of the Future, but Jimmy Garoppolo refused to go away. Despite a mostly mixed bag of a stint with the Niners, Garoppolo did have two deep postseason runs on his resume, including a Superbowl appearance. It’s not exactly Joe Montana and Steve Young, but it is similar in that one guy is waiting for his big shot while the other is keeping him at bay by winning games. That all changed in the NFC Championship, where Garoppolo and the 49ers could not hold off the Rams despite having a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter and his final pass resulted in one of the ugliest and most disheartening interceptions you will ever see. This will only fuel the rumors that Garoppolo will not be with the team in 2022 (GM John Lynch could be seen giving Garoppolo a big hug rather than dap him up the way he did his other players, which can’t be a good sign for Jimmy) and should that be the case, Trey Lance will see his value skyrocket in the same way that Jalen Hurts did this past year. He has big time upside and with the creative mind of Kyle Shanahan, I could see him as a QB1 due to his rushing prowess and Shanahan molding the offense around his strengths.
5. Devonta Smith, WR Philadelphia Eagles – Smith was seen by many as the crown jewel of 2021’s wideout class and the returns were promising. His very first NFL catch was a touchdown, and it did not take long as he established himself as the #1 on an Eagles team that had been desperately searching for one this side of Terrell Owens and to a lesser extent, Desean Jackson. Smith’s slender frame was a concern for many, but he had no trouble staying healthy and finishing the season with a (64-916-5) line. As an Eagles fan, I would still like him get to at least get to 185-195 but that can be discussed at another time. Smith and Quarterback Jalen Hurts showed nice chemistry in leading the Eagles to an unlikely playoff berth and the expectations will only get bigger from here. With multiple national championships and a Heisman trophy, and pretty much every college accolade available to wide receivers in his collection, Smith will only get better and will soon fully grow into the superstar that sprouted during his early years at Alabama. He’s a solid WR2 that is worth drafting as early as Round 5.
4. Jamarr Chase, WR Cincinnati Bengals – Despite sitting out the 2020 College Football season, Chase had his own legion of supporters that thought he was the best receiver in the draft. A dominant 2019 put Chase on the map and the Bengals wasted no time in pairing him with his LSU buddy Joe Burrow. If you had Chase on your fantasy team, you likely are reading this with a fresh 2021 championship win in your possession. Chase was phenomenal last year with 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 Touchdowns, the last two of which led all rookies. His season came to a head when he tore the Chiefs apart in championship week for 11 catches, 266 yards and 3 Touchdowns, which likely won many fantasy owners a championship (In one of my leagues, I was opposite my opponent who had him that week, so I’m still quite bitter about that.) Chase didn’t miss a beat during the playoffs, recording 100+ yds. and/or a TD in three consecutive games vs. the Raiders, Titans and Chiefs and playing a key part in the team’s surprising Super Bowl run before falling to the Rams. Chase is the latest LSU rookie receiver to light the NFL world on fire from the jump, much like Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr. and Justin Jefferson before him and he was a key player in the Bengals Superbowl run in 2021. He’s an easy WR1 next year and beyond, so if you want his services for your fantasy team be prepared to grab him within the first 2 1/2 rounds.
3. Travis Etienne, RB Jacksonville Jaguars – Part of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ miserable campaign might very well be due to the absence of their second first round pick in Etienne. He was drafted to be the explosive counterpart to the steady and power-oriented style of James Robinson, but a Lisfranc injury suffered in pre-season play took him out for the remainder of the season. This set the Jaguars offense back drastically and made top selection Trevor Lawrence a bullseye for opposing defenses. (More on him in a bit.) The Jaguars will certainly be glad to have him healthy for 2022 and he will no doubt be a featured part of the offense, giving them the big play element that they have been lacking since the Maurice Jones-Drew era. Due to Robinson having more experience in playing than Etienne, he has slightly higher value, but both are solid flex plays that are each worth a 5th-7th round price as of right now, and the presence of one will greatly benefit the other.
2. Trevor Lawrence, QB Jacksonville Jaguars – After being the darling of College Football for the better part of the last 3 years, Lawrence was predictably the #1 overall pick in 2021 to the worst team in the NFL; and predictably he struggled with an incomplete roster that seemingly got thinner as the year progressed. For starters he lost his back field mate at Clemson, the aforementioned Travis Etienne to a Lisfranc injury in the pre-season. Then he lost his pro-bowl receiver, DJ Chark, in Week 4 to a season-ending ankle injury. He lost other players for the year such as lead back James Robinson, emerging do-it-all player Jamal Agnew, and safety blanket Dan Arnold. The schedule was not kind to the Jaguars, as they had to face the likes of the Rams, 49ers, Broncos, Patriots and Bills, each of whom possessed high profile defenses with pro-bowlers on all levels. To top it off, he was coached by the disaster that was Urban Meyer. It was just a bad situation all around for the Jaguars and Lawrence. However, he might have saved his best performance for the very last week. He defeated the (allegedly) playoff-bound Colts and kept them out of the postseason. What’s more, he recorded his lone game with a passer rating above 100 and did not turn the ball over, so that is something to build on going into next year. His fantasy value remains minimal as of now but with several players returning and possible reinforcements coming by way of the draft, Lawrence warrants a reserve spot on benches and could be a matchup-based starter against weaker defenses based on 2021 finishes.
1. Najee Harris, RB Pittsburgh Steelers – Harris started the season off slow, failing to eclipse 45 yards rushing in each of his first three games, but he settled in by the time October came around and became the focal point of the Steelers ground attack as everyone expected, rushing for a healthy 1200 yards even and 7 scores. His already solid value was boosted heavily by his receiving chops, adding 74 receptions for 467 yards and 3 more scores. His best receiving game came in Week 3 against the Bengals when he caught 14 passes for 102 yards. Oh, and by the way, Harris didn’t fumble once during the regular season, a HUGE deal for a rookie tailback. It was by far the best season for a Steelers back since Franco Harris in 1972. (Not bad company to be mentioned with alongside sharing the same name with.) He quickly became the favorite option of Ben Roethlisberger, and with the recent retirement of the Future Hall of Famer, whoever steps in next will surely rely heavily on Harris dual-threat ability as well. Harris lived up to the hype in 2021 and gives the Steelers brass a big piece of the puzzle to build around for the future. For fantasy footballers, they should expect Harris draft price to be somewhere toward the end of the first round, as he is likely to be off the board any time after that.
BEST OF THE REST:
RB Kenneth Gainwell, RB Philadelphia Eagles – Gainwell was able to carve out a serviceable role for himself in the Eagles backfield, and from a scoring perspective he might have been the best back on the team. Gainwell scored 5 Rushing Touchdowns and added 33 catches with another score, showcasing his versatility and dependability when called on by Coach Nick Sirianni. At the very worst, he’s earned the right to be the direct back up to the underwhelming Miles Sanders (0 scores in 2021) and could even push for the starting job next year. Gainwell will start 2022 as an intriguing deep-league flex play.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, RB New England Patriots – I was concerned about how Stevenson would hold up as a rookie playing for Bill Belichick, due to the volatility of the RB position under Belichick in years past. Stevenson proved to be a solid #2 to starter Damien Harris, rushing for over 600 yards and 5 Touchdowns. The Patriots backfield proved to be one of the most lucrative for fantasy purposes (something else I was wrong about) as Harris and Stevenson combined for 20 rushing Touchdowns. Harris will enter next year as a low-end RB1 while Stevenson will have flex-play appeal most weeks as the two should continue to split the carries about 60-40.
Davis Mills, QB Houston Texans – Mills was selected in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft to be the successor to Deshaun Watson. After taking over as the starter in Week 2, he played surprisingly well, given the fact the Texans had virtually no notable options on offense. Four times he posted a passer rating of over 100 and three of those games he finished with a rating of 128.5 or better. Mills has some upside as a late round pick and he figures to be part of the Texans rebuild, but with Head Coach David Culley unfairly let go after just one season, it remains to be seen if the new regime will want to move forward with Mills as the guy.
Nico Collins, WR Houston Texans – The player that the Texans selected 22 picks after Mills, Collins won a starting receiver job in the pre-season. He finished the year with 33 catches for 446 yards and a score; Nothing to write home about but one thing that Collins has going for him is his size. At 6’4” and 215 lbs. Collins is the type of big, bodied player that could grow into a difference maker with time. The Texans hit reset on just about all levels last offseason, but Collins’ experience starting for a bad team could be a blessing in disguise and he could be counted on to be a significant contributor next year.
Tutu Atwell, WR Los Angeles Rams – Outside of some light work as a returner, Atwell had no fantasy value as a member of the Rams this season. Despite being a 2nd round pick, he remained buried on the depth chart behind Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson. He was placed on IR on November 2, which may have been the tipping point for the team to trade for Odell Beckham Jr. (Woods was also lost to a torn ACL). Atwell can be ignored for fantasy purposes next year.
Brevin Jordan, TE Houston Texans – The third Texans rookie to make this list, Jordan had modest contributions as a rookie, finishing with a 20-178-3 line. Tight End is usually the most difficult spot for rookies to make an instant impact and the Texans were all over the place both on and off the field so it can be forgiven if any young player did not make an impact right away. Jordan was part of the draft overhaul the team made as it attempts to move on from the past so he could have a chance to grow next year and merits watching over the offseason and going into Training Camp.
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